SIGNAL+DRAHT INTERNATIONAL
Hamburg November 2002

Analysis of Risks Associated with Axle Counters

Holland Railconsult was invited to perform a risk analysis for the introduction of axle counter-based train detection systems on the West Coast Route. Axle counters may to a large extent replace the currently applied track circuits. The risk associated with hazards of axle counter systems were analysed, and also a comparison was made between the key benefits (opportunities) and drawbacks (hazards) of both concepts of train detection.
The goal of the analysis was to consider the concept of axle counters rather than any specific product. The methodology used for modelling the risk is the Advanced Cause Consequence Analysis (ACCA), which is supported by the modelling tool ISAE.
The process would have been almost impossible without the help of the tool ISAE. The investment in time setting up the data structures and filling the database paid for itself in the ease of changing the models after reviews and of performing sensitivity analysis of the models for certain parameters, and in reusing substructures in other models.

All copyrights acknowledged Telzlaff Verlag, Hamburg.

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